Monday, August 22, 2005

Don't Prettify Our History - New York Times


by PAUL KRUGMAN

The 2000 election is still an open sore on the body politic. That was clear from the outraged reaction to my mention last week of what would have happened with a full statewide manual recount of Florida.

This reaction seems to confuse three questions. One is what would have happened if the U.S. Supreme Court hadn't intervened; the answer is that unless the judge overseeing the recount had revised his order (which is a possibility), George W. Bush would still have been declared the winner.

The second is what would have happened if there had been a full, statewide manual recount - as there should have been. The probable answer is that Al Gore would have won, by a tiny margin.

The third is what would have happened if the intentions of the voters hadn't been frustrated by butterfly ballots, felon purges and more; the answer is that Mr. Gore would have won by a much larger margin.

About the evidence regarding a manual recount: in April 2001 a media consortium led by The Miami Herald assessed how various recounts of 'undervotes,' which did not register at all, would have affected the outcome. Two out of three hypothetical statewide counts would have given the election to Mr. Gore. The third involved a standard that would have discarded some ballots on which the intended vote was clear. Since Florida law seemed to require counting such ballots, this standard almost certainly wouldn't have been used in a statewide recount.

The Herald group later did an analysis of 'overvotes,' in which more than one choice was recorded, but this wasn't a true recount, because some of it was based on computer records rather than the ballots themselves.

In November 2001 a larger consortium, which included The New York Times, produced more definitive results that allowed assessment of nine hypothetical recounts. (You can see the results at www.norc.uchicago.edu/fl - under articles.) The three recounts that had been most widely discussed during the battle of Florida, including the partial recount requested by the Gore campaign and two interpretations of the Florida Supreme Court order, would have given the vote to Mr. Bush.

But the six hypothetical manual recounts that would have covered the whole state - including both loose and strict standards - would have given the election to Mr. Gore. And other evidence makes it clear that many intended votes for Mr. Gore were frustrated.

So why do so many people believe the Bush win was rock solid?

One answer is that many editorials and op-ed articles have claimed that no possible recount would have changed the outcome. Let's be charitable and assume that those who write such things are victims of the echo chamber, and believe that what everyone they talk to says must be true.

The other answer is that many though not all reports of the results of the ballot reviews conveyed a false impression about what those reviews said. A few reports got the facts wrong, but for the most part they simply stressed the likelihood - in some cases presented as a certainty - that Mr. Bush would have won even if the U.S. Supreme Court hadn't intervened. But even if a proper recount wasn't in the cards given the political realities, that says nothing about what such a recount would have found.

The tone of these reports may have been influenced by the timing: the second consortium's report came out just two months after 9/11. The country wanted very badly to believe in its leadership. Nobody wanted to write stories suggesting that the wrong man was sitting in the White House.

More broadly, the story of the 2000 election remains deeply disturbing - not just the fact that a man the voters tried to reject ended up as president, but the ugliness of the fight itself. There was an understandable urge to put the story behind us.

But we aren't doing the country a favor when we present recent history in a way that makes our system look better than it is. Sometimes the public needs to hear unpleasant truths, even if those truths make them feel worse about their country.

Not to be coy: election 2000 may be receding into the past, but the Iraq war isn't. As the truth about the origins of that war comes out, there may be a temptation, once again, to prettify the story. The American people deserve better."

Once again Paul Krugman speakes truth to power. I am so old that I remember a time when the only people trying to rewrite history were NAZIs, communists and those who would trample on democracy and freedom. America has come full circle. It started with an arrogant King George, it now has a petulant little man acting like HE was King George and an organization that has become the antithesis of what America stands for, the enablers of our latter day King George, the Republican Party.

To be sure both Little King George and the Republican Party speak of democracy and freedom but make no mistake, their actions speak louder than their words. As proof I offer the the following:

The smearing of John McCain in Election 2000. The smearing of John Kerry in Election 2004. The smearing of anyone attempting to shine the light of truth about the Cadre of Corruption that is the Bush Regime. Finally the sliming of a Gold Star mother, Terry Sheehan. To be sure, republicans are using words to assassinate the character of honorable americans but the only difference between them and the tactics used by despotic regimes since time immemorial is one of degree. As to that degree, mark my words, if these abominable people are not stopped and stopped soon, the character assassinations may well transform into the real thing ala Chile and the thousands of "dissapeared" people who disagreed with Pinochet.

It can happen here.

2 comments:

Jeff Huber said...

Bob,


It may be (I pray) that this whole episode turns out to be a wake up call for this country.

Yes, it can happen here. It's happening before our eyes.

Jeff

Bob Sakowski said...

Jeff,

I regret that both chronologically and physically I am only good for "cannon fodder" but I will do everything in my power to resist those who would bring America down.

I will not lay down and let it happen in the manner of the "good" Germans of the 1930s .